13th July 2024

Tesla introduced every week in the past that Giga Texas (its giant manufacturing facility simply exterior of Austin, Texas) had produced 10 million of the corporate’s new 4680 battery cells. That appears like lots! Properly, let’s be trustworthy, that may be a lot! Nevertheless, it’s most likely not as many as you’d assume on the floor. It’s important to crunch some numbers with a view to get a way of what that actually means by way of variety of electrical car battery packs, or extra merely, the variety of Tesla automobiles these cells might energy.

Really, you don’t should crunch the numbers, as a result of Troy has. Tesla stat tracker, quantity geek, and chart creator “Troy Teslike” has put out his estimates for what 10 million 4680 cells means in a broader sense.

To start with, he notes that “5 million cells per 30 days are sufficient for less than 6,038/month Mannequin Y SR or 4,058/month Cybertruck SR.” So, 10 million cells could be sufficient for ~12,000 items of the lowest-range Mannequin Y or ~8,000 items of the lowest-range Cybertruck (when that involves market). That doesn’t sound so spectacular. Additionally, in fact, should you wished to incorporate a blended common of longer-range and shorter-range Mannequin Ys or Cybertrucks, the totals could be significantly decrease.

Stepping into the small print just a little additional, Troy Teslike writes, “Primarily based on my calculation, the Cybertruck Customary Vary battery pack may have round 1,232 cells and 100 kWh capability. Mannequin Y SR has 828 cells and 67.three kWh capability.”

And what in regards to the greater image? Tesla Giga Texas is meant to supply 4680 battery cells for the Tesla Cybertruck and different Tesla automobiles. “That’s 8% of what Giga Texas wants for Mannequin Y and Cybertruck. So, nonetheless, a protracted technique to go,” Troy notes. Somebody requested, “Will Cybertruck additionally have the ability to use 2170 cells?” Troy, in fact, doesn’t work for Tesla or know every thing, however he follows the corporate very intently and will get varied suggestions. His opinion was easy: “Possibly however there aren’t sufficient 2170 cells both.” Certainly.

With all of that in thoughts, one does marvel if a gradual manufacturing ramp-up of 4680 battery cells might delay Cybertruck manufacturing additional. Naturally, Tesla might get 4680 cells elsewhere, however the concept was that Tesla Giga Texas would produce the cells and the vehicles. Additionally, whereas Tesla has produced simply 10 million 4680 cells to this point, it might produce 10 million a month in a few months, and 30 million a month not longer after that, and so forth. Or not. We simply don’t know.

So, with this little bit of information, we nonetheless don’t know a lot about the place Tesla might be a 12 months from now, however including context round what precisely 10 million cells can imply by way of car volumes does assist to see the larger image.

What are your ideas on this? How bullish are you on Tesla 4680 battery manufacturing in Texas and elsewhere?

 


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